New non-recourse lending to the real estate sector is expected to decrease in fiscal 2020. Lenders envisage a reduction in new deals due to the impact of COVID-19.
"Logistics" was the most popular asset for lending: The market is expanding as growth in e-commerce continues to lead robust logistics demand. Lenders also appear to value the income stability that results from long-term leases.
On the outlook for the debt market over the next year, the survey shows that the respondents are assuming a contraction in the real estate investment market as most respondents stated that "spreads will widen", followed by "real estate prices will fall" and "LTV will decrease".
Regarding lending strategy in fiscal 2020 as revealed in this survey, the decrease in LTV ratios and increase in spreads was limited to certain asset types. However, lenders' cautious stance can be inferred from their outlook.