New shopping centre supply in Moscow in 2020 is projected to decline by 10-15% y-o-y. However, most new malls confirmed to be opening in 2020-2021 remain on schedule. Several large schemes came on stream in H1 2020, with two additional large developments expected to be completed before year end.
The vacancy rate increased by 0.6 p. p. to 6.6% in Q2 2020 as new supply came on stream with space still available. Vacancy is forecasted to reach 10-12% by the end of Q4 2020 owing to an increase in new stock combined with weak demand.
Despite signs of a recovery in foot traffic and retail turnover in July, developers and retailers are awaiting financial results for August and September to fully assess any shift in consumer behaviour and spending patterns. Positive indicators observed in the month since reopening may reflect deferred demand.